When Did Covid Come to America?

Q: When Covid come to America?

A: The Coronavirus might have been spreading quietly in humans for years, or even decades, without causing a detectable outbreak: Dr.Francis Collins, Director, The National Institutes of Health.


Why do people ask when Covid came to America?

During the 1976 presidential campaign, Swine Flu struck Gerald Ford endorsed mass immunization, but the vaccine proved both ineffectual and lethal and contributed to Ford’s loss. Ronald Reagan ignored AIDS five years later and was reelected in a landslide.

It is no wonder that our governments treat epidemics as acts of a capricious God. That’s what they have done every ‘flu season for centuries. Says UK Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn, “I remember distinctly going to a meeting at the Cabinet Office, where we got a lecture about herd immunity. The last time I discussed herd immunity was when I worked on a pig farm 40 years ago. It was absurd that you would build up herd immunity by allowing people to die. And so, while the government was going into eugenic formulas and discussing all this stuff, they were not making adequate preparations.”

When the WHO announced the Covid-19 outbreak in January 2020, the CDC’s Dr. Fauci announced, “The American public shouldn’t worry about the coronavirus outbreak in China”.


The CDC, born in 1946 as the US Army’s Communicable Disease Center and headed by a non-scientist Army officer, has always provided surveillance, research, and advice, leaving the execution to the Army’s chain of command. Finland’s Institute for Health and Welfare probably fields more public health staff than the CDC.

The White House first ignored the WHO, then classified discussions, moved them to secure facilities, and released information on aneed-to-know basis[1]. The CDC banned Covid testing and served recalcitrant officials withcease and desist orders. Only after the 2020 election did thirty-four CDC researchers, using archived Red Cross blood samples, announce what many had suspected: by December 2019, the virus was well established in the USA.

Findings: Of the 7389 samples, 106 were reactive by pan-Ig. Of these 106 specimens, 90 were available for further testing. Eighty-four of 90 had neutralizing activity, 1 had S1 binding activity, and 1 had receptor-binding domain/ACE2 blocking activity >50%, suggesting the presence of anti–SARS-CoV-2–reactive antibodies[2]. Donations with reactivity occurred in all nine states.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been in the United States before January 19, 2020.

The obvious question is: how long before January 19, 2020, was SARS-Cov-2 introduced?

Happily, the answer is not far to seek.

We know two things:

  1. the death doubling interval–how long it takes for the number of total confirmed deaths to double in America: 139 day
  2. the number of people who died in one month, January, 2021: 70,000.

Working backwards

Now we can calculate the approximate date when the virus started killing us: Working backward, we halve the deaths every 139 days, and find that the virus appeared here around 2015. 

The date is supported by similar findings from Europe, especially from an Italian research team:

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy.

Conclusions: People with no symptoms not only were positive after the serological tests but also had antibodies able to kill the virus. So the new coronavirus can circulate among the population for long and with a low rate of lethality not because it is disappearing, but only to surge again”.

When did Covid come to America? Why did we not detect it?

A clinician friend explained,

Covid-19, if already spreading in the US, even in 2019, would have been mandatorily detected in real-time just because of an alarming quantitative increase in the death rate is wrong. If that were the case, the Italian and Spanish Health services who struggled for four months with high concentrations of elderly Covid-19 patients would have seen such an “excess mortality” red flag. Still, they never did until the Chinese made a decisive qualitative step forward and identified a novel virus.

Covid has a low death rate, and as such, could not have been identified just by an alarmingly increased excess death rate, especially in the early months of the pandemic when the number of cases was low. The qualitative factors, clinical symptoms, scans, serology, and the like should have raised the red flag[4]. Still, instead, the CDC chose to bury them under the now-discredited “EVALI” convenience tag.

The Chinese identified SARS-CoV2 led by qualitative drives, not because they had too many deaths, but because they reacted as perfectionist professionals when faced with symptoms they could not attribute to any previously-known respiratory syndrome.

It would have been effortless to hide the statistical effect of 6 – 7 months of running Covid19 infection in the USA, especially at the inception stage of the epidemic. Laypeople may object that if 100,000 died, someone would have noticed. No.

Maybe somebody would have “noticed” an extra 100,000 deaths. But not until they were totalized with excess deaths or negative deaths from all other factors. For instance, the uncertainty on the death toll for ‘flu during only the 6-months winter season is as high as 38,000 deaths. It would have taken years for an extra 100,000 deaths to raise a red flag as a confirmed anomaly.

Considering its small order of magnitude, the CDC could easily have missed the 2019 Covid death rate. Given other uncertainty factors such as ‘flu death rate and falling life expectancy.

It now appears that China, far from being the source of the outbreak, may have been the last to experience Covid. The WHO found no evidence of Covid in China before November 2019, and China’s statistics support that conclusion:


  1. Excess Patient Visits for Cough and Pulmonary Disease. A Large US Health System in the Months Before the COVID-19 Pandemic. Time-Series Analysis. JMIR Vol 22, No 9 (2020): September
  2. A positive Covid serology test is a criterion for a EU Covid health passport. ↑
  3. The U. of Washington calculates 905,000 Americans have died, 58% more than records indicate. This moves Covid’s introduction closer to 2012. ↑
  4. Can the CDC quickly and accurately identify the proximate cause of a few hundred thousand deaths over several years? Vioxx killed 500,000 people before being pulled off the market. ↑

When did Covid come to America?

Watch this video and decide for yourself:

Analysis of the Genomic Distance Between Bat Coronavirus RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Origins of COVID-19. Shaojun Pei & Stephen S.-T. Yau  Acta Mathematica Scientia volume 41pages 1017–1022 (2021From our analysis, SARS-CoV-2 most likely has already existed in other countries such as France, India, Netherland, England and United States before the outbreak at Wuhan, China.

Where did Covid Come From?

Why China Leads the World: Talent at the Top, Data in the Middle, Democracy at the Bottom

  • Why China Leads the World

    The only book that explains all three elements of China's success: 1. Talent at the Top means that China's brightest, most idealistic people are are admitted to politics–a policy unchanged in 2200 years. 2. Data in the Middle means that every policy is implemented, tracked, and optimized based on terabytes of data. The PRC is the world's largest consumer of public surveys. 3. Democracy at the Bottom means that ordinary, honest amateurs assemble twice a year to check the stats and sign off on new legislation. Policies need a minimum of 66% popular support to become law. That's why 95% of Chinese say the country is on the right track.
  • January 13, 2021
  • 288 pages

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