Waiting for Covax: A Drama in Three Acts
Act I. In which the US infects China with the coronavirus in 2019 but China, Waiting for Covax in China have discovered the plan thanks to having researchers in every US lab. Pulls a Tasuki-zori, wins global admiration and makes a fortune selling anti-Covid gear.
Act II: In which China develops a cheap, effective vaccine in 2020[1] and distributes it to friends in ASEAN.
Act III: In which, says the IMF, “China generates 51% of world growth in 2021 and most other growth generators are South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia–while the US contributes nothing”.
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Last week I met my first Covax inoculate, a Chinese businessman who owns hotels in my hometown, Chiang Mai–whose only industry is tourism.
By pleading business necessity, and with help from his MD son-in-law. He got vaccinated and can come and go at will. He’s preparing his managers for a tourism tidal wave, ‘in weeks, not months,’ triggered by Beijing’s vaccine release. The Philippines will get it before China itself, then our ASEAN neighbours will receive enough to inoculate their high-contact people like small retailers–of which we have millions. Next in line are Belt and Roadsters, Africa, and Latin America.
Thus will the developing world get a leg up on the developed world, and four billion consumers–and their governments–will host its big-spending tourists, and buy more stuff from China.
China has already done sterling work helping developing countries grow. Dambisa Moyo says it has done more for Africa in ten years than we did in a century. It will become Latin America’s leading trade partner next year.
Africa will be close behind, with Brazil and Latin America all presumably months or years ahead of the developed world.
- Following yesterday’s news that Johnson & Johnson had paused enrolment in its COVID-19-vaccine trial because of “an unexplained illness in a study participant,” drug maker Eli Lilly has now paused a trial of its antibody treatment for people hospitalized with COVID-19 owing to a “potential safety concern”. ↑
