The economic consequences of the US-China trade deal mean that, by 2025, it Will Be ‘Game Over’ for the US
The size of China’s displacement of the world balance is such that the world must find a new balance. It is simply impossible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world. Lee Kwan Yew.
China has three thousand years’ experience negotiating with barbarians and, as a consensus-driven people, the Chinese admire skilled mediators. One the twentieth century’s greatest negotiators was a prodigy who made general in his teens and provincial governor at 23. He’d ride into the hills alone and emerge weeks later with an entire rebel army trotting happily behind him.
Master of the win-win, his name was Xi Zhongxun (1913-2002). And Mao said his only equal in history was a fictional negotiator in Dream of The Red Mansions. Until his death in 2002 Zhongxun coached his son, Jinping and now, since Jinping has just completed his first big negotiation. We can see to what degree he got a win-win agreement.
President Trump won. China will deliver sufficient benefits by November next year to boost his re-election campaign.
He will receive a $1 billion campaign contribution from China (via Sheldon Adelson) and boost his standing with his electoral base and the anti-China faction.
It was a win for China, too. The US reluctantly embraced China as an equal and the world’s chancelleries registered the status change. And a re-elected President Trump should support Chinese growth since it is the source of most of America’s benefits. But perhaps China’s biggest win was time. The six year implementation period gives it time to create a different world. The subject of this essay–while America, directionless, struggles to maintain the status quo.
By 2025, China will have integrated the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore. Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand). The Belt and Road Initiative (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Sudan, Armenia, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Asia. Hong Kong, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Argentina). The Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (China, Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Mongolia).
Two-thirds of everyone and everything on earth will be bound to China and each other with a road map to peace and prosperity for all and the finances (the AIIB mobilizes member states’ savings in their local currencies) for government-guaranteed infrastructure investment bonds.
Economically, China’s GDP will be $40 trillion to our $25 trillion. 500,000,000 urban Chinese will have higher net worth and more disposable income than. The average American and inequality will be half America’s–partly because 98% of China’s low-income earners own their homes outright. By 2025 ten Chinese provinces will have higher average wages:
Scientifically and technologically, China will lead the world. According to JSTA, China was the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields back in 2016, tying with the U.S. and has made rapid progress since then.
The Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence says China will overtake the US in the most-cited 50% of research papers this year, the top 10% of research papers in 2020 and the top one percent by 2025. But, WIPO ranked 167 universities and public research universities for the top five-hundred patent applications: one-hundred ten came from China, twenty from the United States and nineteen from South Korea. China also dominates a global ranking of the most-cited research papers published in the thirty hottest technology fields.
Though the US accounted for 3.9 million research papers overall compared with 2.9 million Chinese papers. China produced the largest share in twenty-three of the thirty fields that drew the most interest. China led the world in most of the top ten fields, like battery research, photocatalysis and nucleic-acid-targeted cancer treatment. Patintformatics says, “Approximately 72% of the academic patent families published in QIT since 2012 have been from Chinese universities. US universities are a distant second with 12%.”
In 2018 China overtook us to become the world’s largest producer of scientific research papers, making up almost a fifth of the total global output and dominates the list of biggest movers in high-quality research.
Michael Mabe of STM said, “The fact that China’s article output is now the largest is very significant.
It’s been predicted for a while, but there was a view this was not likely to happen until 2025.” Expect more early deliveries because China has been outspending us on R&D for twenty years.
China also leads in all fields of civil engineering and sustainable and renewable energy, and in manufacturing, blockchain, supercomputing, speech recognition, graphics, thorium power, pebble bed reactors, genomics, thermal power generation, quantum communication networks, ASW missiles, drones, in-orbit satellite refuelling, Genomic Precision Medicine, passive array radar, metamaterials, hyperspectral imaging, terahertz radar, nanotechnology, UHV electricity transmission, HSR, speech recognition, radiotelescopy, hypersonic weapons, satellite quantum communications, railguns, quantum secure direct communications, quantum controls.
Therefore, Made in China 2025 can now proceed as planned–and doubtless accelerated by this near-miss. So, we know that in 2025 China will have consolidated its manufacturing power, increased manufacturing digitalization, mastered core technologies and become competitive in all areas.
Their energy intensity and pollutant levels will match ours and they’ll be ahead of us in 6G and cybersecurity. High-end numerical control tools and robotics will offset rising wages and they’re on trend to beat us in aerospace. So, quipment and outer space exploration, advanced railway equipment where medium-speed maglevs are the next Big Thing.
Self-driving electric cars running on clean power will be rapidly replacing conventional transportation. China will be making its own high-end agricultural machinery, new materials like graphene and nanomaterials and will lead the world in biomedicine, high-performance medical devices and advanced chemicals. Ocean engineering equipment and hi-tech ships to emphasize China’s claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
By 2025 China will have consolidated its manufacturing power, increased manufacturing digitalization, mastered core technologies and become competitive in all areas. Energy use and pollutant levels will reach that of advanced industrial countries. But, the technologies stressed are: Next-generation information technology, 6G and cybersecurity. High-end numerical control tools and robotics to offset rising wages.
Aerospace equipment and leadership in outer space exploration. Therefore, advanced railway equipment (medium-speed maglevs are the Next Big Thing. Energy-saving and new energy vehicles to replace traditional petrol vehicles. Power equipment as part of China’s implementation of clean power. Agricultural machinery like large tractors and high-performance combines.
New materials like graphene and nanomaterials. Biomedicine and high-performance medical devices and advanced chemicals.
Ocean engineering equipment and hi-tech ships to emphasize China’s claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. So, here’s a more detailed view, broken into five categories, competitiveness, sustainability, security, transformative breakthroughs, cross-disciplinary. Exascale computing is in the first column. .
Socially, they’ll be streets ahead. By 2025 most of their kids will finish high school three years ahead of our best and they have more smart people (10,000 Americans with 160 IQ to their 330,000) all of whom will be working somewhere in government. Although, Their two-hundred person State Councillors will have PhDs and have spent a collective 5000 years governing provinces, running universities and heading Fortune 500 companies. Although, Jack Ma, remember, could not get into teachers’ college.
By 2025 every Chinese will have a home, a job, plenty of food, education, safe streets, health- and old-age care, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, and there will be more drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, hungry and imprisoned people in America than in China.
China will have added two new rights to the UN Charter of Universal Human Rights–the right to food and the right to shelter–and will then lead the US in twenty-eight of the thirty-two enumerated rights.
Militarily, if the US continues spending 3.2% of GDP and China continues spending 1.9%, then each will spend $800 billion on defence in 2025.
Managerially, thanks to their deep bench we can pretty much take these accomplishments to the bank because, as President Trump observed, “People say you don’t like China. So, no, I love them. But their leaders are much smarter than our leaders. And we can’t sustain ourselves with that.
It’s like, take the New England Patriots and Tom Brady and have them play your high school football team. Therefore, what are those busy geniuses planning for us? Economic Consequences historian David Graeber says, “There’s every reason to believe that, from China’s point of view, this is the first stage of a very long process of reducing the United States to something like a traditional Chinese client state.”