How fast is China growing, really?
How fast is China growing?
From 2009 through 2020, the government has strongly re-engaged in direct economic intervention, all while the economy has been steadily slowing. THE RISE OF CHINA’S INDUSTRIAL POLICY 1978-2020, by Barry Naughton.
Professor Naughton is wrong. He conflates two very different things: acceleration and growth. China is growing fast: ten times faster than America. Yes, the acceleration rate is changing, but China’s GDP is growing faster every year.
GDP growth was 9.4 percent a decade ago, but the base for last year’s estimated 6.1 percent was 188 percent larger than the base 10 yrs ago. So the incremental expansion in the size of China’s economy in 2019 was 151 percent bigger than it was at the faster growth rate 10 yrs ago.”
Multiplying the acceleration rate of China’s 2008 economy (9.7%) by its GDP ($10 Tn) tells us its growth: $0.97 Tn.
Multiplying the acceleration rate of China’s 2018 economy (6.6%) by its GDP ($24 Tn) tells us its growth: $1.6 Tn.
Since China’s population is unchanged in that decade, we can see that growth in 2018 was twice 2008’s, even though the acceleration rate back then was higher.
Its 2008 economy ‘grew’ 9.7%, but since its GDP was then $10 Tn, it grew by $0.97 Tn.
Next year, accelerating at 8%, it will add $2.4 trillion to its GDP, far more than the rest of the world combined.
Since China’s population is unchanged, we can see that individual Chinese productivity has more than doubled in the intervening decade
2007 27,009.23 3,551.98 8,945.53 14.2% = 2,164.69 GROWTH
2006 21,943.85 2,752.68 7,608.82 12.7%