Genocide in Xinjiang

Is there Genocide in Xinjiang?

As we’ll see below, there’s no genocide in Xinjiang. So why do NATO countries claim there’s genocide in Xinjiang? US Ambassador Chas. H. Freeman, Director for Chinese Affairs at the U.S. Department of State from 1979-1981, explains:

The CIA programs in Tibet, which were very effective in destabilizing it, did not succeed in Xinjiang. There were similar efforts made with the Uyghurs during the Cold War that never really got off the ground. In both cases you had religion waved as a banner in support of a desire for independence or autonomy which is, of course, is anathema to any state. I do believe that people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones applies here. I am part American Indian and those people are not here (in the US) in the numbers they once were because of severe genocidal policies on the part of the European majority”. 8/31/18

1. What is genocide?

The United Nations defines genocide in the Convention on the Crime and Punishment of Genocide, Article II

Genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

In fact two things have been happening to the Uyghurs in Xinjiang that suggest there’s no genocide there:

2. The Uyghur population is rising faster than the Han population

The Xinjiang growth rate is still almost double the national average, and population growth in Xinjiang is 10x higher than the growth rate in America and Europe!

Xinjiang Genocide

3. Xinjiang wages are rising faster than Chinese wages

In 2010 USD the GDP per capita of Xinjiang is ~ $7,000. Roughly double what it was in 2010 ~ $3,500. If you look at the chart above you can roughly estimate what you would expect the fertility rate to be.

Data: National Bureau of Statistics of China

4. The birth rate in China is the same as the US and Australia

World wide, fertility rates fall as GDP rises:

Tibet and Xinjiang were exempt from the One Child Policy until 2016 and people in Xinjiang had lots of children before 2016 . After the policy changed nothing happened to the children that were already born but people had to pay a fine if they had more than two kids. The new policy applies to virtually everyone equally, across China so, over time, the Xinjiang growth rate will fall slightly below the rest of China then bounce back to be the same as the rest of China since it now has the same policy applied.

5. Let’s review the UN definition of Genocide:

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group

In 1953 there were 3.6 million Uyghur in Xinjiang. In 2,000 there were 8.4 million. Wikipedia says that in 2018 Xinjiang has a total population of 25 million of which 11.3 million are ethnic Uyghur. It is quite weird to claim that such a consistent population growth of an ethnic group is somehow a ‘genocide’.

Xinjiang’s life expectancy had gone up over the last 60 years or so from 30 to 72 and that, from 2010 to 2018, the Uighur population of Xinjiang had increased by 25.04 per cent as against 13.99 per cent for the whole of Xinjiang, and 2 per cent for the Han majority ethnic group. 

China’s new policy is the same for everyone, not aimed at a “ethnic, racial or religious group”. The new policy should naturally result in slow but steady population growth depending on how many people stay single. Even if the policy is removed the population growth is unlikely to increase to what it was since the region will have increased its GDP which will naturally result in a lower growth rate. This doesn’t meet the definition of “intent to destroy” since the population is still growing.

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