More hot buttons than usual.
Tech
China leads in 57 of 64 technologies–up from 52 last year. Writes Frans Vandenbosch from Beijing: “The gap is much wider than can be easily measured. We have long past the tipping point. EU and US FDA experts all come to China because China is setting the standards now. Not just in medical devices and pharma, but in automotive and electronics”.
New titanium-nickel alloy combines the strength of steel with the flexibility of rubber. Xi’an Jiaotong University’s marvel of modern metallurgy is poised to redefine what’s possible in fields ranging from aerospace to robotics.
China Now Has 1,000 Satellites on Orbit.
China established 3 pivotal 6G standards for the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to enhance communications that are immersive, ultra-reliable, low-latency and AI-integrated.
Scientists transmitted high-definition video signals over kilometers using terahertz wireless technology, the first such use of superconducting terahertz receivers. Terahertz wavelengths are between 3,000-30 micrometers, between microwaves and optical infrared frequencies.
China is the only country making DUV lithography machines with 100% domestic IP. It’s a generation behind ASML’s DUV machines, which rely on US patents, but catching up fast.
China’s new laser-based immersion lithography machine has a resolution of 65nm or better, a significant step up from the previous most advanced indigenous equipment which stood at 90nm.
YMTC leads the world in 3D NAND flash–and China is the world’s biggest customer. “This shifts the semiconductor industry’s power balance. The global semiconductor market now has a new contender poised to lead”.
Peking University wins 2024 International Collegiate Programming Contest World Final. No US college in the top ten.
Trade
BMW 5, Audi A6 and Benz E discounted 27%, still losing market share. China
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becoming a drag could lead to plant closures in China and Europe. China’s Stelato S9 and Denza Z9GT are pulling customers away.
US manufacturing employment has fallen 30% since 1979 as population grew 50%. Boeing and Intel are struggling. From machine tools to industrial robots to consumer electronics to commercial shipbuilding. The U.S. has five large oceangoing commercial ships on order, compared to China’s 1,794 and South Korea’s 734.
“China is a very interesting trading partner,” says Argentina’s Javier Milei. “They don’t make demands, they only ask that they not be bothered.” Argentina desperately needs investment.
The EU launched a WTO case against China’s inquiry into EU dairy subsidies, the first time the commission has challenged an investigation-stage action by a WTO member in Geneva, before punitive tariffs are imposed on the politically sensitive sector.
Washington’s $65 billion chip stimulus is failing. Samsung and Intel cut staff up to 30% after export controls slashed their China sales, formerly 25% of revenue. European plants are on hold and Intel has yet to install production equipment in the US, the most expensive part of the buildout. Panic in the CHIPS Program Office!
2022: 165,000 tech layoffs
2023: 264,000.
2024: 132,000 YTD.
The fall of America as a solar superpower is a tragedy of errors, where myopic corporate leadership, timid financing, oligopolistic complacency and policy chaos. I visited Hemlock, Michigan, a tiny community of 1,408 people that produced one-quarter of the world’s PV-grade polysilicon, and Leshan, China. Bloomberg. Recommended.
Chinese dockworkers know they’ll be taken care of:
Liu Run, Chinese business author, back from visiting pioneering Chinese factories in Mexico, saw them making products from furniture to home appliances, and tells this story.
Beijing wants institutional investors – including sovereign funds – to stabilize the Chinese stock market, provide more long-term capital. This shifts the calculus of the equities market.
Exports grew 9%, to $309 billion in August, their highest in two years. Imports rose 0.5%.
Solar cell exports grew 47% YoY, EVs by 34%, lithium-ion batteries 9%.
Temu is the world’s second most visited e-commerce site, ahead of E-Bay, two years after its September 2022 launch.
Beijing’s inbound arrivals – 379,300 – surpassed pre-Covid levels. More Russians, fewer Americans. Beijing allows foreign cards for transit. Beijing received
BYD overtook Volkswagen as China’s best-selling brand in 2023, the first time ever. This should scare the foreign premium brands. Premium China EVs are on their way, too.
Watch The Complete Beijing Auto Show. “Western carmakers were looking at how Chinese rivals had become so powerful so fast, wondering what to do, and why they let this happen.”
CATL’s new EV batteries have a 10-year warranty to retain 85% capacity after ten years. Tesla’s have an 8-year warranty and 70% capacity retention.
There are 57,000 low-altitude aviation companies, up 30%. Larger drone operators need official permission for flights. China’s aviation regulator has approved 17 UAV testing zones and three experimental bases.
1% of China’s annual 100 billion packages need drone transport: that’s 3 million/day.
Electronics production is up 12.3%, America’s up 0.4%. Japan’s down -2%, EU’s down 8.0%.
August power consumption rose 8.9%, to 965 TWh., an all-time high.
The threshold for inclusion in China’s Top 500 enterprises has risen for 22 consecutive years, to $8 billion this year.
Xian Co.’s high end industrial machines have replaced foreign equipment for making C919 skin parts & fuselage. COMAC is preparing for mass production, flight testing and delivery at scale. (Airbus shipped 863 planes in 2019). TP Huang..
Tesla will sell 600,000 cars in China this year, but competition has created profitless, stagnant sales while the EV market is growing 30%-40% pa. Tesla is losing market share in China despite 5-year, 0% financing.
BYD is so large that it can scale up production and lower cost with just internal demand: It makes the cheapest Camera, Lidar, CMOS chips, AI chips, MMW Radar, Ultrasonic sensors and computation platform because its subsidiaries don’t need to make high margins on its cars. TP Huang. BYD self-parking:
China’s space agency has completed testing a Stirling converter in orbit, achieving high efficiency when operating between large temperature differences- the inside and outside the space station. It’s reversible, usable for engines and refrigerators. It would allow deep space missions to slash reliance on solar energy.
China will launch three unmanned missions to survey the environment and resources of the lunar south pole, and one to verify the in-situ utilization technology of lunar resources. Stage 1 of the International Lunar Research Station focuses on the lunar south pole and can conduct research within a 100 km range, using the Earth-Moon integrated information network. By 2050, a lunar network–with the lunar orbital station as the hub and the lunar south pole station as the center and the lunar equator–nodes, forming a platform with long-term unmanned, short-term manned, completely manned functions and continuous and stable operation.
